2009 Predictions

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I'm going to put my money where my mouth is, actually not my money but my opinion and in the grand scheme of things that isn't worth too much. Anyways, I should be studying the intricacies of the Korean honorific system and thoroughly bored to tears. So I will write this instead.

Sport

England will not be number 1 in any major sport (Football, Rugby or Cricket). I'm starting slow with the predictions.
New Zealand will finish the year as number one Rugby union team but will again get complacent before the next world cup.NZ will win the 7's. Wales will win the 6 nations but England will improve. (Hard not to from 4th out of 6).

South Africa will be number one in test cricket with India and Australia close behind, but Aus will remain number 1 in one day game.
England will win the ashes!!!!!!!!!!!

Spain will continue to be the pace setters in football but England will qualify comfortably and I will convince myself that we are the best team in the world and will win the world cup. Wales, Scotland and N.Ireland will be valiant in their typical demise. France won't qualify for the world cup. Portugal, Greece, Czech Rep, Germany, Spain, England, Lithuania (Surprise), Italy and Holland will win their groups.

Chelsea will win the premiership ahead of Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal (Please don't let it be Villa) There will again be an all English Champions League final. Leeds will win the play offs. West Brom, Stoke and I hate to say it West Ham are going down.
Man City will not be able to sign any world class players and West Ham will be on the verge of bankruptcy and get deducted 10 points sending them down.
Beckham will leave LA Galaxy to return to Europe to try and make it to the world cup.
Andy will win his first triathlon at the end of the year!!!!!
No other sports really matter.

The world

OK if the sports predictions had a lack of expert analysis then this certainly will. I have discovered since travel that the more we learn the less we actually know and that every situation is complicated beyond belief. This has led me to a complete mistrust of the media and experts who speak on every field because i know there is no way they know it all. Events in Thailand have taught me that in particular with journalist spouting out rhetoric that they probably got off wikipedia and seeing a protest and making the assumption that protesters must be in the right.
However I am not a journalist, expert or incredibly smart so take it with a pinch of salt.

The economy I don't think has seen the worse of the crisis. People are only really starting to get laid off and it won't be for a couple of months until the masses of unemployed no longer have savings or money just to survive. There will be more unemployment and more non essential companies will fall. I will guess one of the big US car makers will collapse even with govt assistance (personally i don't agree they should get backing, It's good for the US to back them but not global economy). I think that late spring is when it will hit worse. I expect to see a large increase in university applicants especially for masters programs from people who take redunacy and decide it's a good time to do further study. In the UK i can imagine there will be a big campaign to end benefits but they will continue. I think if we do have an election in the UK then maybe Labor will win with a Liberal coalition. It all depends how the govt work in the next 3 months, this is there chance to wipe away the faults of the last few years.

Obviously it's Obama's first year in charge and perhaps the economy is a hidden benefit to him, no one will blame the man who can do no wrong and by the end of the year the economy will show signs of recovery and he will be praised for it. Guantanamo Bay will hopefully close. It won't be all good for him though, i don't think he'll get even half of what he wants through congress. I don't think Hilary will be a good foreign secretary (i would of given her a domestic role like health care) I think she will suffer from being a celebrity more than being a proven negotiator.

I won't make predictions about Israel and the Middle East because lets be honest the year will end like every year, civilians on both sides will needlessly die and nothing will or can be resolved. I'm almost to the view that the world should just stand aside and let them get on with it because until one side completely annilates the other this won't end.

More in my interest I hope that South Africa take a more hard line against Mugabe and that the UK support South Africa rather than do things unilaterally. The EU i hope also follows the UK line rather than support dictators. I think this has the potential to be resolved by the end of the year if neighbouring governments have the desire. SA though has an election next year will decide what happens.

Thailand i think will continue to have protests all year. I can't see their current PM lasting the year and if they have elections then they will lose to the rural majority and be in exactly the same situation as before. I can't see Taksin getting back into power. The Thai economy will suffer more than any in the region.

In my adopted home of South Korea I hope they ride the economic crisis, it's fair to say I'm not a great fan of the president here but the opposition are acting lack spoilt children and there is serious lack of maturity amongst politicians here. This year I hope that none of the presidents big ideas (especially the canal) will be allowed to proceed. I think Korea will get a nasty shock from the new Obama team and there export economy will suffer. I feel Koreans need to forget about high economic growth and concentrate on updating its social welfare and social policy. This country has the potential economically but the lack of social development is worrying. I would like to see a clamp down on private academies and religious movements but I'm sceptical. How Korea progresses from a poor export country to a cultured developed country relies on how the masses act and what they will demand.

The North Korea situation will continue to be terrible, our only hope for the year is that the great leader dies. Then and only then will something happen. I think we will see the emergence of prodige probably from within the NK military. There will be no military action from the south. I really hope that China decides that enough is enough and put serious pressure on NK. China I think are in control of what happens this year. I would hope but doubt that the media and US policy team focus more on what is the worse humanatarian crisis in the world not only this year but in the last 30 plus years. It is despicable that the nuclear issue has been allowed to overshadow this. China also has a key role to play in Burma where the junta remain in control. These really are three issues that i study and focus on and would like my career to focus on.

Like usual many other countries will have seriously neglected issues and it seems you need to create a bloodbath before any media outlet will take it seriously.

I think thats enough for predictions. Israel, India and South Africa will all have elections so it will at least be interesting. One last thing, Pound one to one with the Euro WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. That better change otherwise i will never be able to cross the channel again.

Personally, I'll be back in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on the morning of the 13th of February. I will probably be stuck in some dead end job for at least 6 months until various interviews and applications are over. So by 2010 I can start to conquer the world!!!